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INTERNATIONAL ACADEMIC AND SOCIAL JOURNAL
"THE WORLD OF TRANSFORMATIONS"


Editor-in-chief: R.S. Grinberg
International Council: A.A.Akaev (Kyrgyzstan), S.D. Bodrunov (Russia), V.M. Geets (Ukraine), M.S.Gorbachev (Russia), G.K. Galbraith (USA), M.Zeman (Czechia), I. Iliesku (Romania), G. Kolodko (Poland), A. Ye. Lebedev (Russia), A. Michnik (Poland), A.D. Nekipelov (Russia), P.G.Nikitenko (Belarus), K.Prunskene (Lithuania), R.Skidelsky (United Kingdom), . Sulejmenov (Kazakhstan), F.Tishendorf (Germany), Ya.Charnogursky (Slovakia), L. Sharinger (Austria), G. Erler (Germany)



Founders:
  • The Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences

  • NP "Editorial board of "The World of Transformations" journal"



The journal is registered by the Ministry for Television and Radio Broadcasting and Mass Media PI N 77-15089 from April 14, 2003.

Editorial board: A.V.Alexeyev (managing editor), V.Bachishin, L.B.Vardomsky, S.P.Glinkina, M.Yu.Golovnin, V.I.Kulikov, N.V.Kulikova, E.K.Mazurova, I.I.Orlik, A.P.Potyemkin, V.A.Samarin, G.D.Toloraya, B.Ye.Frumkin, A.S. Tsipko, T.V.Tsygichko (executive secretary), E.V.Tsymbal, T.V.Chubarova, L.F.Shevtsova, B.A.Shmelyov

Contacts:Nakhimovsky prospekt, 32
Moscow 117218
Russia

Pnone: +7 499 7241519;
E-mail: redaktor.mp@gmail.com, mir-peremen@yandex.ru

Web-site: http://www.mirperemen.net; http://www.imepi-eurasia.ru


2017
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2015
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2004
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To the Readers of "The World of Transformations"
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2/2017

CONTENTS



To the Readers


Moscow Economic Forum 2017


Transformation


Economy


Politics


Social Sphere


Regional Blocs


Culture


At the Bookshelf
  • L. Vardomsky. Econometric Measurement of Eurasian Space




2/2017

SUMMARY

R. Grinberg. Civil War in the Minds of Russians Is not Over
100 years ago, extraordinary events took place in Russia. How to evaluate the revolution of 1917? The thesis that the Russian impulse to justice had a serious impact on the social sphere of the then capitalism is virtually not challenged. The establishment of equality, which the October Revolution declared and largely implemented, quickly gained European, if not world-wide, popularity. In short, sociality is the main benefit that the October Revolution gave.


Confused Man between Despair and Hope: World Situation and Russian Specificity
Such topic was chosen by the participants of the first plenary discussion of the 5th Moscow Economic Forum, which, according to tradition, was held in the Shuvalov Corps of the Moscow State University named after M.V. Lomonosov on March 3031, 2017.


E. Kleer. Central and Eastern Europe: Peripheral and Imitative Capitalism
To answer the question of how capitalism was built in Central and Eastern Europe, a serious theoretical socio-economic and politico-economic analysis is required. Only then we can understand the characteristics of these peripheral states.


S. Radzievskaya. On the Financial Viability of the Post-Soviet States
At the end of XX century as a result of the collapse of the camp of the socialist countries and the USSR that headed them, the world became unipolar capitalist, led by the United States, in fact the only hegemon, and a single world financial system with the main currency being the US dollar.


A. Shurubovich. Russian-Belarusian Relations: a Thorny Integration Path
Russian-Belarusian relations are now experiencing a very difficult period. The integration process within the framework of the Union State, formed by the two countries, the treaty on the creation of which was signed back in 1999, clearly "stumbles", its prospects are unclear.


J. Kotowicz-Javor. Will Poland Have an Innovative Economy?
After 27 years of Polish economic transformation, the creation of the foundations of a social market economy and a democratic state, after its inclusion in the structure of the European Union and the opening up for competition at the global level, many positive changes in it can be noted.


B. Shmelev. What Russia Wants and What Russia Can do in Foreign Policy
Nowadays we hear more and more often, that turbulence is growing in the sphere international affairs. This means that relations between nations and states are becoming less stable, which means that they must take care of preventing or countering potential and often actual, threats from the external environment, which means that resources must be diverted for this. Why is it restless in the world, what hinders the creative processes?


O. Ponomareva. Shaky of Neutrality
A very tense atmosphere in Europe has been increasingly exacerbated recently by the North Atlantic alliance NATO. This military and political bloc continues to draw more Summary Summary and more countries of Europe into itself, assuring them that, as they say, only within NATO they will be protected from imminent Russian aggression. Meanwhile, in modern Europe there are countries that do not succumb to horrors about the Russian threat and do not want to sacrifice their independence.


L. Khodov. Is the Specter of Communism Returning?
Mankind worked its entire history for the sake of the bread of a vital and better future for future generations. Economists, sociologists and government officials of some very prosperous countries, came to the conclusion that citizens of these countries can always be paid the so-called unconditional base income. The idea of unconditional income is being tried for implementation in two other countries: in Finland and the in Netherlands, and it is actively discussed in the European press..


D. Davydov. Unconditional Income and Prospects of Post-Capitalism?
The theoretical perspective of a new ideological consensus is considered in the article, which should become a response to the inability of modern capitalism to respond adequately to the challenges of production automation and precarization..


E. Shestakova. Problems of Prolonging Working Life
Western society is aging, life expectancy in retirement is increasing, at the same time, the official retirement age is increasing, and numerous programs to stimulate the employment of persons of older age groups are being developed. However various spheres of life, especially the labor and social, are not yet ready for radical demographic transformations.


T. Dolinina. Rating: a Tool of "Soft Power" or an Indicator of Development?
In recent years, the ratings covered almost all spheres of our life, including international economic relations. Of course, a comparative analysis is good in itself, for clarity, but for experts and managers, most likely, it is necessary to identify bottlenecks.


A. Devyatkov. Moldova between European and Post-Soviet Integration Projects
In 20132015 years, trade and economic relations between Russia and Moldova survived a large-scale crisis. In connection with the signing of the association agreement with the European Union by Chisinau, Moscow introduced the most-favored-nation treatment in relation to the key articles of Moldovan exports.


P. Raimondi. BRICS and European Union: Is it Possible for the Alliance
The theme of the 1st Forum of BRICS Research Centers, called "Pragmatic Cooperation", obliges to present several ideas and some specific proposals. They affect the general capabilities, challenges and responsibilities of this organization in the transitional era of globalization.


Yu. Knyazev. Arbitrary Assessments and Inconclusive Facts
The appearance of A. Tsipkos article, dedicated the criticism of Bolshevism, is quite natural in the Post-Soviet era, and its relevance is beyond doubt given the centennial anniversary of the Great Russian Revolution of 1917. Undoubtedly, there will be many more studies that can only be welcomed. The main thing is that they should help a correct, not one-sided, but impartial understanding of the tragic and fateful events of that time.



1/2017

Contents



To the Readers


At the Root of Change


To the 25th Anniversary of the Newly Independent States


Transformation


Economy


Politics


Social Sphere


Regional Blocs


At the Bookshelf
  • V. Ryazanov. Neoindustrializm and Strategy of Economic Development of Russia
  • A. Vorontsov. Russia's Interaction with East Asian Partners
  • The Publications of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences on International Problems in 20152016




1/2017

SUMMARY

R. Grinberg. Springboard or Emergency Room?
A multi-part media saga about the ascent of Donald Trump to the presidential throne in the USA does not appear to have reached its climax, although the sacred line of the first 100 days of his presidency is already near.


R. Khasbulatov. The System Had to be Reformed, not Destroyed
The events of twenty-five years ago, when the USSR collapsed, and after it the world of socialism followed, when the peoples of almost 30 countries started the reconstruction of the social and economic structure, still attract attention. Apparently, that time is not just interesting, but, in many respects, it is instructive.


A. Pylin. Updating Economic Policy in Azerbaijan
Contemporary Azerbaijan is the leading state in the Southern Caucasus, the share of which is over two thirds of the regions economy. Having large reserves of hydrocarbons and a unique geographical location, which is at the at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, the country managed to attract foreign capital of the leading developed countries to the oil and gas sector back in the 90s, which later became the main driver of economic growth. The integration of the Republic of Azerbaijan into the global economy as a major energy supplier, made it possible, for a quarter of a century, to achieve exceptional results of social and economic development.


L. Fokina. Transformation of the Economy of Moldova: Disappointing Results
The first President of Moldova M. Snegur, advocating for the reunification of the Republic of Moldova with Romania, in fact, provoked forceful actions against Transnistria, whose population vigorously resisted reunification. As a result, on the territory of Transnistria, the self-proclaimed Transnistrian Moldavian Republic was formed. The existence of the unrecognized republic has become one of the features of the Post-Soviet evolution of Moldovas economy.


E. Monczynska. Inclusion as an Imperative of Social and Economic Structure
The contemporary modern global free-market social and economic reality is most clearly manifested from two sides. On the one hand, with one of them, it is growing social inequality, extensive social isolation and the worlds remaining zones of famine, with a population of about one billion people. On the other hand, there are growing manifestations of tranquility and squandering in the world of the rich, in the world economy of surplus.


E. Vilkin. Institutional Changes as a Driver of Transformations of Economic Systems
The interest of researchers in the importance of institutions, of institutional changes and in the evolution of social and economic systems increased markedly over the past several decades. One of the most important reasons for this interest is the experience of former socialist countries, passing through fundamental systemic changes and facing dilemmas concerning the choice of the institutional model of capitalism or of another social and economic system.


E. Sheinin. Energy Factor in Russia's Economic Relations with the Countries of Central-Eastern Europe: a Difficult Search for a Compromise
Providing of the economies of the countries of Central-Eastern Europe (CEE) with energy resources is one of the most urgent and complex problems. In its solution, the cooperation of these countries with Russia plays a significant role. For Russia, it is a market and a source of revenues from energy exports, determined by the geographical proximity and the established traditional ties. For the CEE countries, these are the energy supply and the energy security.


L. Khodov. What Happened to the Entrepreneurial Spirit of the Germans?
In Germany, small and medium-sized businesses, along with the largest private and public companies and concerns, have always been a co-author of economic development, one of the most important factors in building of the strength of the country. What today has become the reason and the socio-economic stimulus for reduction of the entrepreneurial activity of the population in the country?


T. Valeva. The Bulgarian Turn
In any democratic country in the world, the elections of the head of state, no matter whether it is a presidential republic or a parliamentary one, become the most important event for its citizens. In such small states as Bulgaria, presidential elections were of a fateful character in contemporary history.


M. Ricceri. How to Save the Sociality of a Market Economy
According to the International Labor Organization ILO, the first specialized agency of the United Nations that has been operating since 1946 on a tripartite basis and is attended by representatives of governments, organizations of workers and employers from 187 countries in the world, 73 percent of the worlds population, or 5,2 billion people, is without any social protection. These data reflect the dramatic level of social injustice in the world.


S. Novikov Wage Stagnation and Inequality in the USA
This paper is based on a series of reports from Raising Americas Pay, a multiyear research, which had been conducted by the Economic Policy Institute over a period of several years, in order to make wage growth an urgent national policy priority. The studies of Raising Americas Pay identify broad-based wage growth as the central economic challenge of our time, which is essential for alleviating inequality, expanding the middle class, reducing poverty, creating equal access to the economic prosperity, and for sustaining of economic growth.


L. Zevin. How to Measure the Progress of Regional Economic Integration?
One of the main trends of the world development of the XXI century is the interaction and competition of global and regional processes. Already at the end of the second half of the last century, the incorrectness of the thesis about the domination of globalization, becomes clear. In fact, two multidirectional vectors dominated and continue to dominate: these are globalization and fragmentation (regionalization and inter-regionalization in the form of emerging trans-oceanic partnerships). The unmatched periods of the peak of development of each of the vectors explain why globalization was considered as the dominant one.


G. Toloraya. A Pilot Project of "The Greater Eurasian Partnership"
In 2016, the idea of "The Greater Eurasian Partnership" was put forward at the center of Russia's conceptual approaches to advancing of its strategy in the Asian Pacific Region (the APR). At the St. Petersburg Economic Forum in June of 2016, President of Russia V. Putin proposed "to think about the creation of the Greater Eurasian Partnership with the participation of the Eurasian Economic Union, as well as of the countries with which we already have close relations, such as China, India, Pakistan, Iran and of course our partners in the CIS and in other interested states and associations". What are the prospects for this Eurasian partnership in the new geo-economic conditions?



4/2016

CONTENTS



To the Readers


  • A. Akayev. Has no Alternative the Union
  • O. Butorina. Freedom Economic Category
  • O. Bukhovets. Full Integration will Take Place
  • L. Vardomsky. An Important Factor in European and World Politics
  • P. Havlik. Expectations and Real Outcomes in Retrospect
  • S. Dubinin. About Experience of the Last Quarter-Century
  • I. Egorov. "Better to Fear than Frightened"
  • Z. Zakhariev. We need Effective Forms of Integration
  • V. Inozemtsev. We live in a Period of Post-Soviet Disintegration
  • V. Papava. Does "Barrier Dimension" Overcome?
  • A. Ryabov. Pessimistic Prospects
  • J. Sapir. The Integration can Take Place in a Sustainable Manner if the Sovereignty of each Country is Respected
  • Li Sin. Breakthrough Possible
  • A. Tavadyan. Perspectives of Integration Processes in the Eurasian Space
  • A. Shirov. Necessary to Strengthen the Structural and Industrial Component Integration
  • B. Shmelev. The Political Fragmentation of the Post-Soviet Space is Preserved
  • R. Khasbulatov. New Independent States: Gains and Losses


Transformation


Economy


Politics


Culture


Onto the Bookshelf
  • T. Kochegarova. The Subjective Factor of the Russian Reformation 90s






4/2016

SUMMARY

R. Grinberg. Post-Soviet Space Today: Results and Lessons
After 20 years of autonomous existence of each of the republics of the former USSR, almost nobody argues about the content of the elites' intentions in connection with obtaining of the state independence.


The 25th Anniversary of the New Independent States
A quarter century ago, the former Soviet republics, embarked on the path of independent development, at the same time they expressed the desire to radically change social but the economic system.


O. Savelzon. How to Prepare a Safe Transformation of "Post-Putin's" Russia?
Under the present regime in Russia, in the best case, the local positive changes are possible, which are insufficient even just to stop the degradation of the country. It urgently needs systemic reforms. But it is not expedient to start them without a preliminary transformation of the behavioral culture of potential reformers. For an effective conversion of behavior, it is necessary to conduct a drastic increase of the rationality of decision making.


O. Komolov. Modern Capitalism: Whether Regional Economy Survive?
The history of the market economy of the last decades exposed important contradiction in the development of this system, associated with the processes of its monopolization. On the one hand, a relative enlargement of enterprises forms conditions for building up labor productivity and technological progress. On the other, it creates dangers for the economic development in the interests of society as a whole, as well as it undermines the main engine of the market, which is free competition.


V. Voloshin. Turbulence as a Threat to World Energy Security of Russia
Energy security of Russia, in conditions of the new balance of power in the world community, is considered. The situation has dramatically changed in recent years due to the worsening of Russia's relations with the EU, the US and with Ukraine, as well as the imposition of sanctions of the West. The advances in scientific and technical sphere has made possible the production of hydrocarbons from shale, the use of renewable energy sources, and the development of trade in liquefied natural gas. The liberalization of the European energy market is being further developed. As a result, the configuration of the global energy economy is changing; the new threats and risks to reliable energy supply of Russia, are emerging.


I. Archvadze. Georgia and Russia: Economy Reconciliation
Today, when considering the Russian-Georgian relations, the emphasis is made on traditional policies and issues related to Abkhazia and South Ossetia, on the status of visas for Georgian citizens. However, the rapidly developing, in recent years, economic relations between Georgia and Russia, deserve more and more attention and objective analysis.


P. Minakir. Far Eastern Dimension of Spatial Economy
On July 1, 2016, the Economic Research Institute of Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ERI FEB RAS) celebrated 40th anniversary since its foundation. Today, both in Russia and abroad, it is widely known and authoritative center of fundamental and applied researches on a wide range of issues of the development of the Russian Far East, of the Russian economic space as well as of the international economic interactions and social development of the region. The Editor-in-Chief of the Journal "The World of Transformations", R. Grinberg, talks to the Director of the Institute, Academician P. Minakir.


S. Bodrunov. Professional Holiday
November 11, 2016 Russian Economic Community for the first time It celebrates its professional holiday Day of the economist.


M. Lees. How to Live after the "Cold War"?
President Gorbachev, in his impressive and forward-looking opening address, asked us to work together to face global challenges and insisted that our discussions should respond to the new challenges of our time. This conference is focused on the European Security after the Cold War. What is Europe does it include Russia or not? I believe that sound European security depends on building a constructive relationship with Russia.


Nguyen Quoc Hung. External and Foreign Policy of Vietnam Towards China
In the XXI century, the interstate political relations between Vietnam and China, deteriorated sharply, against the background of the progressive development of mutual visits of heads of state and leaders of the Communist Parties and of their intensively developing economic, parliamentary, cultural and scientific ties. The reason was the ongoing dispute over the belonging of Paracel Islands and of Spratly Islands' archipelago in the South China Sea, which had been continuing for several decades.


A. Tsipko. Bolshevism and National Socialism: the Old and the New Threats
Exactly a quarter of a century ago, Russia accomplished the alleged anti-communist revolution, proclaimed the priority of individual rights and liberties and of the universal humanistic values. But, in spite of this, the truth about the initial anti-human nature of Bolshevism, from which we had ostensibly refused, hitherto did not become the foundation of our historical memory.



3/2016

CONTENTS



To the Readers


The 25th Anniversary of the New Independent States


Moscow Economic Forum 2016


Transformation


The World Crisis


Politics


Regional Communities


Onto the Bookshelf
  • B. Shmelev. In Memory of Vyacheslav Ivanovich Dashichev




3/2016

R. Grinberg. Love for Sanctions as an Economic Masochism
At the very beginning of the sanctions confrontation between Russia and the West, it was firmly established that the sanctions, in principle, were harmless. For our economy, it is nothing more than a mosquito bite. When it became clear that not everything was so rosy, they started saying that the sanctions would not last long.


L. Vardomsky. The Post-Soviet Integration Project: What They Wanted and What They Got
The Post-Soviet space since 1991, underwent fundamental changes in terms of both systemic and economic transformation. The present article is mainly devoted to the latter. On the basis of an analysis of what happened and what is happening, an attempt was made to present the transformation of the Post-Soviet space in the foreseeable future.


A. Shurubovich. The Independent Belarus: Economic Successes and Failures of the Authoritarian Regime
After gaining independence in 1991, the Republic of Belarus found itself in a rather difficult economic situation. Nevertheless, implementing a model of development, aimed at the formation of socially oriented market economy, it was able to, not only relatively quickly enter the prereform level on key economic indicators, unlike the majority of the states of the former Soviet Union, but also to significantly surpass it, having provided a steady growth of the populations welfare, on this basis.


N. Ziyadullayev, S. Ziyadullayev. When the Dictatorship Suits for the Whole World
Thanks to a skillful geopolitical and geo-economic strategy, the country succeeds in maintaining stability and security, which 25 years ago seemed almost unattainable. However, in the next few years, Uzbekistan, which is celebrating the 25th anniversary of its Independence, expects an increase of its role in a globalizing world. Russia has a real chance to strengthen the influence in this state and to use this "window of opportunities" most effectively.


Russian's Economy: Is a Positive Scenario Possible?
The negative forecasts of the countrys development, made by domestic and international experts, the decrease in its positions in the world ratings, have become commonplace. They are based on the objective factors, such as the decline in oil prices and the devaluation of the national currency, which exacerbated a relapse of becoming more primitive, undiversified, de-industrialized economy. Can such a situation be overcome and how? Is a positive scenario of development possible? Participants in the II-nd Plenary discussion, held on March 23 of this year, at the MEF 2016 (at the Moscow Economic Forum-2016), were looking for answers to these questions.


A. Kiva. China and Russia: a Similar Past but a Different Present
Any Russian, who visited China, will say for sure that we have with it different cultures, mentality, psychology, etc. But a researcher, who is dealing with The Celestial Empire, not disputing this claim, will find much in common between our peoples and countries.


E. Kaloeva. Neo-Totalitarianism under Post-Socialism
Franjo Tuđman is one of the veterans of the national liberation struggle and one of the youngest generals of the era of B. Tito, who had supported the Croatian national emigration and as a result he had lost everything. In the new age, he becomes the right nationalist and the authoritarian ruler. How common are such metamorphoses for the politicians of our time, and to what consequences do they lead?


K. Rouz. War of Currency Devaluations
Currency devaluations, which had swept across many developed countries and across the countries of the emerging markets, during the year 2015 became a consequence of the coincidence of a number of factors. Firstly, some of the fundamental causes of the global crisis of 2008 have not yet been overcome, and they manifested themselves at a turning point of transformation of the international trading system. Secondly, the US Federal Reserve Systems rejection of the 40-yearold policy of cheap dollar, led to the collapse of the markets of raw materials and to the stagnation of a large part of the worlds industrial production.


V. Arkhipova Peculiarities of Modern "Currency Games"
The article focuses on three important aspects. Firstly, we analyzed the history of "currency games" and its classification during the periods of gold standard (manipulating the gold standard by "speculative attacks" and currency wars), starting from 1980 and until now (currency manipulations, defensive currency interventions and "quantitative easing"). Secondly, it was identified that "currency games" had become one of the key factors of global systemic imbalances to arise during the current era of financial globalization. Thirdly, we reached a conclusion that "currency games" in 2010 had been not a global currency war but it had been a reverse reaction to turmoil in the national and in the world financial systems.


I. Sinitsina, N. Chudakova. Poland: a Sharp Turn
The end of 2015 in Poland marked the start of a sharp turn in the domestic and foreign policy. Already in the first few moths, the new executive and the legislative authority demonstrated a course, aimed at the erosion of the democratic principles of organization of the society and the state, at the construction of the vertical of power, i.e. of rigid centralization of power, headed by the ruling party. Opposition politicians and media in Poland define this turn as a right-wing conservative.


M. Goncharenko, L. Khomyakova. On the Possibility of a Single Currency in the Eurasian Economic Union
The currency integration acts as a necessary condition for the development of mutual cooperation in the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union. Creation of a well-functioning mechanism involves solution of a complex task of an optimal combination of supranational and national management bodies in conditions of different levels of development of the participating countries economies.


Gr. Mesezhnikov. Vyshegrad Destinies
On February 15, 2016 the Vyshegrad Group (V-4) celebrated the 25th anniversary of its existence. In 1991, two years after the fall of the totalitarian regimes in Central Europe, hardly someone assumed that this project of regional cooperation would exist for more than a quarter of a century


E. Shneider. The Effect of Brexit for the European Union: the Dismantling of the Integration or its Deepening?
On June 23, 2016 elections were held in Great Britain for the countrys exit from the European Union. Already before that in France, Germany, Netherlands, Italy, Denmark, Austria, Poland, Hungary and Slovakia, the number of votes of the parties, critical of the EU, had increased. In different ways strong criticism of the EU, was a response to the globalization, the European expression of which namely it is perceived by many.





Journal "The World of Transformations"
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New Issue of the Journal "The World of Transformations", 2017, N 2

INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE
"RUSSIA IN THE MULTIPOLAR WORLD CONFIGURATION",
Moscow, Presidium of the RAS,
October 28-29, 2010


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