RUS / EN
INTERNATIONAL ACADEMIC AND SOCIAL JOURNAL
"THE WORLD OF TRANSFORMATIONS"
A.A.Akaev (Kyrgyzstan), S.D. Bodrunov (Russia), V.M. Geets (Ukraine), M.S. Gorbachev (Russia), G.K. Galbraith (USA), M.Zeman (Czechia), I. Iliesku (Romania), G. Kolodko (Poland), A. Ye. Lebedev (Russia), A. Michnik (Poland), A.D. Nekipelov (Russia), P.G.Nikitenko (Belarus), K. Prunskene (Lithuania), R.Skidelsky (United Kingdom), Î. Sulejmenov (Kazakhstan), F.Tishendorf (Germany), Ya.Charnogursky (Slovakia), L. Sharinger (Austria), G. Erler (Germany)
- The Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences
- NP "Editorial board of "The World of Transformations" journal"
The journal is registered by the Ministry for Television and Radio Broadcasting and Mass Media PI N 77-15089 from April 14, 2003.
A.V.Alexeyev (managing editor), V.Bachishin, L.B.Vardomsky, S.P.Glinkina, M.Yu.Golovnin, V.I.Kulikov, N.V.Kulikova, E.K.Mazurova, I.I.Orlik, A.P.Potyemkin, V.A.Samarin, G.D.Toloraya, B.Ye.Frumkin, A.S. Tsipko, T.V.Tsygichko (executive secretary), E.V.Tsymbal, T.V.Chubarova, L.F.Shevtsova, B.A.Shmelyov
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Web-site: http:// www.imepi-eurasia.ru, http://www.imepi-eurasia.ru/eng/mir.php
To the Readers of "The World of Transformations"
To the Readers
At the Root of Change
To the 25th Anniversary of the Newly Independent States
At the Bookshelf
- V. Ryazanov. Neoindustrializm and Strategy of Economic Development
- A. Vorontsov. Russia's Interaction with East Asian Partners
- The Publications of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy
of Sciences on International Problems in 2015–2016
Springboard or Emergency Room?
A multi-part media saga about the ascent of Donald Trump to the presidential throne in the USA
does not appear to have reached its climax, although the sacred line of the first 100 days of his
presidency is already near.
The System Had to be Reformed, not Destroyed
The events of twenty-five years ago, when the USSR collapsed, and after it the world of socialism
followed, when the peoples of almost 30 countries started the reconstruction of the social and
economic structure, still attract attention. Apparently, that time is not just interesting, but, in
many respects, it is instructive.
Updating Economic Policy in Azerbaijan
Contemporary Azerbaijan is the leading state in the Southern Caucasus, the share of which
is over two thirds of the region’s economy. Having large reserves of hydrocarbons and a unique
geographical location, which is at the at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, the country managed
to attract foreign capital of the leading developed countries to the oil and gas sector back in the
90s, which later became the main driver of economic growth. The integration of the Republic of
Azerbaijan into the global economy as a major energy supplier, made it possible, for a quarter of a
century, to achieve exceptional results of social and economic development.
L. Fokina. Transformation of the Economy of Moldova: Disappointing Results
The first President of Moldova M. Snegur, advocating for the reunification of the Republic of
Moldova with Romania, in fact, provoked forceful actions against Transnistria, whose population
vigorously resisted reunification. As a result, on the territory of Transnistria, the self-proclaimed
Transnistrian Moldavian Republic was formed. The existence of the unrecognized republic has
become one of the features of the Post-Soviet evolution of Moldova’s economy.
E. Monczynska. Inclusion as an Imperative of Social and Economic Structure
The contemporary modern global free-market social and economic reality is most clearly
manifested from two sides. On the one hand, with one of them, it is growing social inequality,
extensive social isolation and the world’s remaining zones of famine, with a population of about
one billion people. On the other hand, there are growing manifestations of tranquility and
squandering in the world of the rich, in the world economy of surplus.
E. Vilkin. Institutional Changes as a Driver of Transformations of Economic Systems
The interest of researchers in the importance of institutions, of institutional changes and in the
evolution of social and economic systems increased markedly over the past several decades. One
of the most important reasons for this interest is the experience of former socialist countries,
passing through fundamental systemic changes and facing dilemmas concerning the choice of the
institutional model of capitalism or of another social and economic system.
E. Sheinin. Energy Factor in Russia's Economic Relations with the Countries of Central-Eastern Europe:
a Difficult Search for a Compromise
Providing of the economies of the countries of Central-Eastern Europe (CEE) with energy
resources is one of the most urgent and complex problems. In its solution, the cooperation of
these countries with Russia plays a significant role. For Russia, it is a market and a source of revenues from energy exports, determined by the geographical proximity and the established
traditional ties. For the CEE countries, these are the energy supply and the energy security.
What Happened to the Entrepreneurial Spirit of the Germans?
In Germany, small and medium-sized businesses, along with the largest private and public
companies and concerns, have always been a co-author of economic development, one of the most
important factors in building of the strength of the country. What today has become the reason
and the socio-economic stimulus for reduction of the entrepreneurial activity of the population in
The Bulgarian Turn
In any democratic country in the world, the elections of the head of state, no matter whether it is
a presidential republic or a parliamentary one, become the most important event for its citizens.
In such small states as Bulgaria, presidential elections were of a fateful character in contemporary
How to Save the Sociality of a Market Economy
According to the International Labor Organization – ILO, the first specialized agency of
the United Nations that has been operating since 1946 on a tripartite basis and is attended by
representatives of governments, organizations of workers and employers from 187 countries in the
world, 73 percent of the world’s population, or 5,2 billion people, is without any social protection.
These data reflect the dramatic level of social injustice in the world.
Wage Stagnation and Inequality in the USA
This paper is based on a series of reports from Raising America’s Pay, a multiyear research, which
had been conducted by the Economic Policy Institute over a period of several years, in order to
make wage growth an urgent national policy priority. The studies of Raising America’s Pay
identify broad-based wage growth as the central economic challenge of our time, which is essential
for alleviating inequality, expanding the middle class, reducing poverty, creating equal access to the
economic prosperity, and for sustaining of economic growth.
How to Measure the Progress of Regional Economic Integration?
One of the main trends of the world development of the XXI century is the interaction and
competition of global and regional processes. Already at the end of the second half of the last
century, the incorrectness of the thesis about the domination of globalization, becomes clear. In
fact, two multidirectional vectors dominated and continue to dominate: these are globalization and
fragmentation (regionalization and inter-regionalization in the form of emerging trans-oceanic
partnerships). The unmatched periods of the peak of development of each of the vectors explain
why globalization was considered as the dominant one.
A Pilot Project of "The Greater Eurasian Partnership"
In 2016, the idea of "The Greater Eurasian Partnership" was put forward at the center of Russia's
conceptual approaches to advancing of its strategy in the Asian Pacific Region (the APR). At the
St. Petersburg Economic Forum in June of 2016, President of Russia V. Putin proposed ≪to think
about the creation of the Greater Eurasian Partnership with the participation of the Eurasian
Economic Union, as well as of the countries with which we already have close relations, such as
China, India, Pakistan, Iran and of course our partners in the CIS and in other interested states
and associations≫. What are the prospects for this Eurasian partnership in the new geo-economic
To the Readers
- A. Akayev. Has no Alternative the Union
- O. Butorina. Freedom – Economic Category
- O. Bukhovets. Full Integration will Take Place
- L. Vardomsky. An Important Factor in European and World Politics
- P. Havlik. Expectations and Real Outcomes in Retrospect
- S. Dubinin. About Experience of the Last Quarter-Century
- I. Egorov. "Better to Fear than Frightened"
- Z. Zakhariev. We need Effective Forms of Integration
- V. Inozemtsev. We live in a Period of Post-Soviet Disintegration
- V. Papava. Does "Barrier Dimension" Overcome?
- A. Ryabov. Pessimistic Prospects
- J. Sapir. The Integration can Take Place in a Sustainable Manner if the Sovereignty
of each Country is Respected
- Li Sin. Breakthrough Possible
- A. Tavadyan. Perspectives of Integration Processes in the Eurasian Space
- A. Shirov. Necessary to Strengthen the Structural and Industrial
- B. Shmelev. The Political Fragmentation of the Post-Soviet Space is Preserved
- R. Khasbulatov. New Independent States: Gains and Losses
Onto the Bookshelf
- T. Kochegarova. The Subjective Factor of the Russian Reformation 90s
Post-Soviet Space Today: Results and Lessons
After 20 years of autonomous existence of each of the republics of the former USSR,
almost nobody argues about the content of the elites' intentions in connection with
obtaining of the state independence.
The 25th Anniversary of the New Independent States
A quarter century ago, the former Soviet republics, embarked on the path of
independent development, at the same time they expressed the desire to radically change
social but the economic system.
How to Prepare a Safe Transformation of "Post-Putin's" Russia?
Under the present regime in Russia, in the best case, the local positive changes are
possible, which are insufficient even just to stop the degradation of the country. It
urgently needs systemic reforms. But it is not expedient to start them without a
preliminary transformation of the behavioral culture of potential reformers. For an
effective conversion of behavior, it is necessary to conduct a drastic increase of the
rationality of decision making.
O. Komolov. Modern Capitalism: Whether Regional Economy Survive?
The history of the market economy of the last decades exposed important contradiction
in the development of this system, associated with the processes of its monopolization.
On the one hand, a relative enlargement of enterprises forms conditions for building up
labor productivity and technological progress. On the other, – it creates dangers for the
economic development in the interests of society as a whole, as well as it undermines the
main engine of the market, – which is free competition.
Turbulence as a Threat to World Energy Security of Russia
Energy security of Russia, in conditions of the new balance of power in the world
community, is considered. The situation has dramatically changed in recent years due to
the worsening of Russia's relations with the EU, the US and with Ukraine, as well as the
imposition of sanctions of the West. The advances in scientific and technical sphere has
made possible the production of hydrocarbons from shale, the use of renewable energy
sources, and the development of trade in liquefied natural gas. The liberalization of the
European energy market is being further developed. As a result, the configuration of the
global energy economy is changing; the new threats and risks to reliable energy supply
of Russia, are emerging.
I. Archvadze. Georgia and Russia: Economy Reconciliation
Today, when considering the Russian-Georgian relations, the emphasis is made on
traditional policies and issues related to Abkhazia and South Ossetia, on the status of
visas for Georgian citizens. However, the rapidly developing, in recent years, economic
relations between Georgia and Russia, deserve more and more attention and objective
P. Minakir. Far Eastern Dimension of Spatial Economy
On July 1, 2016, the Economic Research Institute of Far Eastern Branch of the Russian
Academy of Sciences (ERI FEB RAS) celebrated 40th anniversary since its foundation.
Today, both in Russia and abroad, it is widely known and authoritative center of
fundamental and applied researches on a wide range of issues of the development of the
Russian Far East, of the Russian economic space as well as of the international economic
interactions and social development of the region. The Editor-in-Chief of the Journal
"The World of Transformations", R. Grinberg, talks to the Director of the Institute,
Academician P. Minakir.
November 11, 2016 Russian Economic Community for the first time It celebrates its
professional holiday – Day of the economist.
How to Live after the "Cold War"?
President Gorbachev, in his impressive and forward-looking opening address, asked us to
work together to face global challenges and insisted that our discussions should respond
to the new challenges of our time. This conference is focused on the European Security
after the Cold War. What is Europe – does it include Russia or not? I believe that sound
European security depends on building a constructive relationship with Russia.
Nguyen Quoc Hung.
External and Foreign Policy of Vietnam Towards China
In the XXI century, the interstate political relations between Vietnam and China,
deteriorated sharply, against the background of the progressive development of mutual
visits of heads of state and leaders of the Communist Parties and of their intensively
developing economic, parliamentary, cultural and scientific ties. The reason was the
ongoing dispute over the belonging of Paracel Islands and of Spratly Islands' archipelago
in the South China Sea, which had been continuing for several decades.
Bolshevism and National Socialism: the Old and the New Threats
Exactly a quarter of a century ago, Russia accomplished the alleged anti-communist
revolution, proclaimed the priority of individual rights and liberties and of the universal
humanistic values. But, in spite of this, the truth about the initial anti-human nature
of Bolshevism, from which we had ostensibly refused, hitherto did not become the
foundation of our historical memory.
To the Readers
The 25th Anniversary of the New Independent States
Moscow Economic Forum – 2016
The World Crisis
Onto the Bookshelf
- B. Shmelev. In Memory of Vyacheslav Ivanovich Dashichev
Love for Sanctions as an Economic Masochism
At the very beginning of the sanctions confrontation between Russia and the West, it was firmly
established that the sanctions, in principle, were harmless. For our economy, it is nothing more
than a mosquito bite. When it became clear that not everything was so rosy, they started saying
that the sanctions would not last long.
The Post-Soviet Integration Project: What They Wanted and What They Got
The Post-Soviet space since 1991, underwent fundamental changes in terms of both systemic
and economic transformation. The present article is mainly devoted to the latter. On the basis
of an analysis of what happened and what is happening, an attempt was made to present the
transformation of the Post-Soviet space in the foreseeable future.
The Independent Belarus: Economic Successes and Failures of the Authoritarian Regime
After gaining independence in 1991, the Republic of Belarus found itself in a rather difficult
economic situation. Nevertheless, implementing a model of development, aimed at the formation
of socially oriented market economy, it was able to, not only relatively quickly enter the prereform
level on key economic indicators, unlike the majority of the states of the former Soviet
Union, but also to significantly surpass it, having provided a steady growth of the population’s
welfare, on this basis.
N. Ziyadullayev, S. Ziyadullayev. When the Dictatorship Suits for the Whole World
Thanks to a skillful geopolitical and geo-economic strategy, the country succeeds in maintaining
stability and security, which 25 years ago seemed almost unattainable. However, in the next few
years, Uzbekistan, which is celebrating the 25th anniversary of its Independence, expects an
increase of its role in a globalizing world. Russia has a real chance to strengthen the influence in
this state and to use this "window of opportunities" most effectively.
Russian's Economy: Is a Positive Scenario Possible?
The negative forecasts of the country’s development, made by domestic and international experts,
the decrease in its positions in the world ratings, have become commonplace. They are based on
the objective factors, such as the decline in oil prices and the devaluation of the national currency,
which exacerbated a relapse of becoming more primitive, undiversified, de-industrialized economy.
Can such a situation be overcome and how? Is a positive scenario of development possible?
Participants in the II-nd Plenary discussion, held on March 23 of this year, at the MEF 2016 (at
the Moscow Economic Forum-2016), were looking for answers to these questions.
A. Kiva. China and Russia: a Similar Past but a Different Present
Any Russian, who visited China, will say for sure that we have with it different cultures, mentality,
psychology, etc. But a researcher, who is dealing with The Celestial Empire, not disputing this
claim, will find much in common between our peoples and countries.
E. Kaloeva. Neo-Totalitarianism under Post-Socialism
Franjo Tuđman is one of the veterans of the national liberation struggle and one of the youngest
generals of the era of B. Tito, who had supported the Croatian national emigration and as a result
he had lost everything. In the new age, he becomes the right nationalist and the authoritarian
ruler. How common are such metamorphoses for the politicians of our time, and to what
consequences do they lead?
K. Rouz. War of Currency Devaluations
Currency devaluations, which had swept across many developed countries and across the countries
of the emerging markets, during the year 2015 became a consequence of the coincidence of a
number of factors. Firstly, some of the fundamental causes of the global crisis of 2008 have not
yet been overcome, and they manifested themselves at a turning point of transformation of the
international trading system. Secondly, the US Federal Reserve System’s rejection of the 40-yearold
policy of cheap dollar, led to the collapse of the markets of raw materials and to the stagnation
of a large part of the world’s industrial production.
Peculiarities of Modern "Currency Games"
The article focuses on three important aspects. Firstly, we analyzed the history of "currency
games" and its classification during the periods of gold standard (manipulating the gold standard
by "speculative attacks" and currency wars), starting from 1980 and until now (currency
manipulations, defensive currency interventions and "quantitative easing"). Secondly, it was
identified that "currency games" had become one of the key factors of global systemic imbalances
to arise during the current era of financial globalization. Thirdly, we reached a conclusion that
"currency games" in 2010 had been not a global currency war but it had been a reverse reaction to
turmoil in the national and in the world financial systems.
I. Sinitsina, N. Chudakova.
Poland: a Sharp Turn
The end of 2015 in Poland marked the start of a sharp turn in the domestic and foreign policy.
Already in the first few moths, the new executive and the legislative authority demonstrated a
course, aimed at the erosion of the democratic principles of organization of the society and the
state, at the construction of the vertical of power, i.e. of rigid centralization of power, headed
by the ruling party. Opposition politicians and media in Poland define this turn as a right-wing
M. Goncharenko, L. Khomyakova.
On the Possibility of a Single Currency in the Eurasian Economic Union
The currency integration acts as a necessary condition for the development of mutual cooperation
in the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union. Creation of a well-functioning mechanism
involves solution of a complex task of an optimal combination of supranational and national
management bodies in conditions of different levels of development of the participating countries’
On February 15, 2016 the Vyshegrad Group (V-4) celebrated the 25th anniversary of its existence.
In 1991, two years after the fall of the totalitarian regimes in Central Europe, hardly someone
assumed that this project of regional cooperation would exist for more than a quarter of a century
The Effect of Brexit for the European Union: the Dismantling of the Integration or its
On June 23, 2016 elections were held in Great Britain for the country’s exit from the European
Union. Already before that in France, Germany, Netherlands, Italy, Denmark, Austria, Poland,
Hungary and Slovakia, the number of votes of the parties, critical of the EU, had increased. In
different ways strong criticism of the EU, was a response to the globalization, the European
expression of which namely it is perceived by many.
To the Readers
Moscow Economic Forum
At the Beginnings of Change
Shall We Reach an Agreement to Negotiate?
Probably, many, if not all, often find themselves in a situation, when disagreements, disputes, and just
different opinions expressed out loud – do not lead to the agreements and mutual consent, but to the
quarrels, enmity, conflicts. The deficiency of negotiability now even hinders the development of healthy
relationships between the individual countries and between the unions of countries.
The Results of the Market Reforms "Without Anger and Bias"
According to the tradition, the Moscow Economic Forum was held in late March already for the fourth
time. Its participants were more than three thousand people. It was covered by about 100 representatives
of the media. It was visited by numerous foreign guests. Its main theme – 25 years of reforms in
Russia – attracted attention primarily of those, who actively advocated the change of the economic
model, prevailing in the country, and offered it a constructive alternative. From a series of plenary
sessions, we chose the one that is closer to the subject and the profile of our journal. The results of
these reforms are assessed by the well-known Russian and foreign experts. The discussion is moderated
by the Co-Chair of the MEF (the Moscow Economic Forum) R. Grinberg.
On the Eve of the Collapse of the USSR
This year marks 25 years, since the huge state – the Soviet Union, ceased to exist.
did not become a huge state – the Soviet Union. Much has been written about what, how and why it
happened. But is there sufficient evidence of how the opposing factors were acting and what was being
undertaken to prevent the catastrophe, which was later called geopolitical?
Yu. Knyazev, M. Lobanov. On the Significance of Market Reforms in the CEE Countries
The beginning of market reforms in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) turned a quarter of a century
already. That is a considerable period in order to draw some conclusions. What this gave these countries,
which had decided to give up not entirely successful socialism and to take the path of return to a more
G. Toloraya, L. Yakovleva.
On the North Korean Transformations: Attempts of "Liberalization and Openness"
Many expected significant changes in the DPRK, taking into account the young age and Western
education of the new leader. There were also those who believed that the role of the new leader would
be purely formal, while the real power would remain in the hands of the military and political elite,
which had gained strength still under the rule of his father.
D. Epshtein. The Economy of Russia: Initial Shove is Required
The reasons, why in Russia the transition to the new industrialization has not been implemented, are
analyzed. It is shown that this is due to a number of peculiarities of the Russian economy. On a number
of the well-known examples, the role of "the initial shove" in the economic reforms of the USSR,
China, Japan, South Korea and Germany is shown.
Yu. Ganin. Foreign Trade Relations of Moldova and Transdniestria in the Conditions of the Competing
The Republic of Moldova, while retaining membership in the Commonwealth of the CIS and the
participation in the Treaty on the Free Trade Zone of the CIS countries, since September of 2014,
started implementation of the provisions of the Association Agreement with the EU. In the current
situation, the new chances and the new threats appeared both for the trade relations between
Moldova and Transdniestria with the West and with the East, and for the process of the Moldovan-
Transdniestrian settlement of the conflict.
B. Shmelev. The Post-Soviet Space: Chances and Risks of Consolidation
The Post-Soviet space is gradually losing the geopolitical integrity under the influence of directed
actions of various world centers of power. The New Independent States externally are politically
oriented differently and are not interested in the development of mutual integration. After the
beginning of the Ukrainian crisis, the CIS is losing the last remnants of legal capacity. A number of
conflicts between the NIS is growing, including the armed ones.
The Western Factor for the Eastern European Transformations
Some researchers call the socio-economic and political transformations in Central and Eastern Europe
over the past 25 years, the historical phenomenon. But the old political "definition" "Eastern Europe" is
retained and it is still often repeated again in politics, scientific publications (especially in the West), in
the press and other publications. And there are grounds for this.
The Imperative of the Welfare State and the Problems of Systemic Corruption in Russia
The article considers the problem of implementation of the principles of the welfare state in modern
Russia in the conditions of economic sanctions from the West.
Yes, there is Growing Inequality: But Why Do the People not Revolt?
In recent years, both in academic journals and in the mass media, the reality of the growing wealth and
income inequality has been described in detail and commented upon. Why do people put up with such
The Innovation is a Necessary Condition for Competitiveness
In the era of the globalization, the stormy technological changes and turbulences in the global economy,
high innovative capacity becomes a necessary condition of competition at the micro and macro levels.
Eurasian Economic Union as Factor of Armenia Development
Armenia, which is in a difficult socio-economic situation, is provided with a real opportunity, by
adopting economic policies, with the underlying internal mechanisms and with the institutions of
securing the development, to obtain the macroeconomic effects from the integration process, especially
in the backbone, systemically important sectors, considerably increasing the country’s competitiveness
and ensuring its economic development.
Migrants – Drama of the European Union
Flows of refugees, which swept Europe, remain an acute problem of both the individual countries and
of the European Union. The lack of unity of members of this organization remains a problem as well,
when it is being solved.
We Need Statesmen and Values, not Cynical and Selfish Policy
A total indifference has accompanied the number of refugees injured by Macedonian police in Idomeni,
where more than 12 000 people, including 4 000 children have been trapped, since Austria asked
Macedonia, Serbia, Croatia and Slovenia, to prevent the continuing passage of refugees. Austria has now
informed the Italian government that it will send several hundred troops to its border with Italy.
From "The Holiday of the Revolution" to "The Holiday of Holy War with the West"
Post-Crimean Russia opens many "secrets of the Russian soul". One must know that, behind a now
fashionable in Russia doctrine of specific Russian anti-western civilization, first of all, stands, a "savage
philosophy" of the Russian predecessor of F. Nietzsche, a philosophy of K. Leontiev.